Stuff You Know For Sure, Maybe, I Guess

Commonsense is often based on nonsense.   Think I’m wrong?  Oh, please, don’t make me hurt you.

          Commonsense or nonsense?  Fat people are more at risk for early death than thin people. 

            Nonsense.  According to a recent study at the UC Davis School of Medicine, which I gleaned through a thorough reading of the November issue of Details Magazine, people of below average weight are 2.2 times more likely to suffer an early demise than people with a normal Body Mass Index (BMI), while the greatly obese are only 1.3 times as likely.  Hey, fat can be healthy!  So now let’s climb on the ‘Get-fat-train’ and constantly badger thin people about bulking up for their health.  Tell Mayor Bloomberg to pass a law.

Commonsense or nonsense?  Breast cancer is the number one killer of women?  Looking at all the pink flashing around, you’d certainly think so.

Nonsense.  Stats for the U.S. from the Center For Disease Control, say that heart problems are the number one woman killers.  Cancer is second.  But, let’s get a second opinion.  According to the World Health Organization, for women in high-income countries, heart problems and strokes lead the way by a wide margin.  Breast cancer comes in at number 5.  But according to Heath Resources and Service Administration, cancer deaths (22.4%) are much closer to heart problems (25.5%).

Want to break those cancer deaths down for me?  Ok.  Here are the numbers of women’s deaths for 2010, from the American Cancer Society:

    Lung and Bronchus: 71,080

    Breast: 39,840

    Colon and Rectum: 24,790

    Pancreas: 18,030

    Ovary: 13,850

    Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: 9,500

    Leukemia: 9,180

    Uterus: 7,950

    Liver and Intrahepatic Bile Duct: 6,190

    Brain and Other Nervous System: 5,720

There are caveats.  Stats vary by age and race.

Commonsense or nonsense?  Anti-abortion and Law & Order go hand in hand.

Nonsense:  If you’re a strong supporter of law and order and also firmly against abortion, you’d better reconsider your positions.  In 2001, Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago and John Donohue of Yale University published a paper titled, “The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime.”  Their data showed that as abortion rates went up in the U.S., crime went down at the same rate.  As you can imagine, this caused a stir, and a flurry of rebuttals.  However, Levitt and Donahue stood by their data, took all the objections into account and reran the numbers in 2005.  Same results.  Abortions lower the crime rate.

Commonsense or Nonsense?  Poor people remain poor.

Nonsense, at least in high-income countries.  Here’s a look at a Canadian study, appearing in the Financial Post, in an article by Jason Clemens, “Income mobility blurs the picture painted by Occupiers”

“Specifically, Statistics Canada’s Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) follow 17,000 households over rotating six-year periods. Such data provides researchers and policymakers with powerful information about how Canadians’ income and labour market participation varies over time.

There are a number of ways to analyze mobility. A recent study by Statistics Canada divided the population into five equal groups (quintiles) based on income. Statistics Canada then followed these individuals over time to assess how their incomes changed relative to the initial income thresholds used to divide the population.

To get a sense of the income levels for these five groups, the average income (after tax) for individuals in 2005 was: $14,100, $25,400, $34,700, $46,100, and $76,600.

The latest one-year data, 2008-09, shows quite a bit of mobility, despite the marked economic slowdown of the period. For example, 25% of those who started in the bottom 20% had moved up at least one group within a year. Similar upward movement is observed for the second quintile (26%) and the third quintile (24%). Put differently, for each of the bottom three income groups (each composing 20% of the population), roughly one in four people moved up at least one group in just one year.

The rates of mobility increase when the period is extended to five years, covering 2005 to 2009. Forty-three percent of those who started in the bottom 20% moved up at least one grouping over five years. Rates of upward mobility were again strongest for the bottom 60% of earners over this period. These results are also remarkably similar to analyses completed in the 1990s.”

Commonsense or nonsense?  If you’re going to get wealthy, the only way is to inherit money.

Nonsense.  In “The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy,” By Thomas J. Stanley, Ph. D. and William D. Danko, Ph. D., there are piles of interesting stats, but one of the most telling is: About 80 percent of America’s millionaires are first-generation affluent.

Commonsense or nonsense?  The more money spent on education, the better the schools.

Nonsense. As reported by By Jamie Gumbrecht, CNN:  Spending a lot of money doesn't mean a kid is getting a good education, and spending less doesn't mean it's bad. Per-pupil spending comes up often because it's among the few easy-to-compare measurements  that crosses school, district and state lines, said Matthew Chingos, a researcher with Brookings Institution's Brown Center on Education Policy.

“Per-pupil funding is a pretty terrible measure of quality of education,” Chingos said. “In some case, it matters, but sometimes it’s hard to find evidence it matters.”

The dichotomy may come about because of the various ways money can be spent.  School facilities can eat money, yet tell you nothing about what’s going on in the classroom.  Here’s a list of the highest amounts spent per pupil:

Highest per-pupil spending

Washington, D.C. - $18,667

New York - $18,618

New Jersey - $16,841

Alaska - $15,783

Vermont - $15,274

Wyoming - $15,169

Connecticut - $14,906

Massachusetts - $14,350

Maryland - $13,738

Rhode Island - $13,699

         Posted by Jamie Gumbrecht -- CNN        

Here are the top ten states for science and math:

         1         Massachusetts

         2         Minnesota   

         3       New Jersey

         4       New Hampshire

         5       New York 

         6         Virginia

         7         Maryland   

         8         Connecticut 

         9         Indiana       

         10      Maine

         Examine what you know and how you found out.  I suggest that may best  be done in a quiet tavern, while you face a pint of beer.